The fight for compute, memory, and manufacturing control Why AI, data centres, national security, advanced packaging, and memory supply are now fighting for the same capital budget.
This is an impressive master class on the semiconductor value chain! Great pointer to where to be “invested” to get the value out of this hidden value stream. Worth bookmarking, and subscribing for more valuable insights.
This is one of the most comprehensive semiconductor breakdowns I've read.
You've done something rare here — you've taken a complex, layered industry and mapped it in a way that's both technically accurate and financially useful. The distinction between the profit pools is what makes this valuable. EDA is not equipment. Equipment is not foundry. Foundry is not memory. Memory is not packaging. They all sit in the same industry, but they do not have the same economics.
And that's where most analysis fails.
What strikes me is how this industry mirrors something larger — the question of who controls the chokepoints. The companies that capture the best economics aren't just the ones with the best technology. They're the ones that control scarcity. ASML controls EUV. TSMC controls advanced manufacturing at scale. NVIDIA controls the AI stack. Memory suppliers control HBM supply. Each is a gatekeeper.
At The Modern Lens, we explore the same question — but applied to structures beyond semiconductors. Who controls the chokepoints in information? In history? In the stories we're told? The mechanisms are different, but the pattern is the same: scarcity creates power.
I wrote about this in a piece called "A Shell on the Riverbed" — about how we tried to understand the universe, and why we missed the most important thing. About the things we search for, and the things we let slip away.
And in "The Digital Testament" — about leaving a trace, about proving that we were here, that we tried. About what we build that outlasts us.
This breakdown is a reminder that understanding the structure — whether in chips or in society — is the first step to seeing clearly. Thank you for this.
This is an impressive master class on the semiconductor value chain! Great pointer to where to be “invested” to get the value out of this hidden value stream. Worth bookmarking, and subscribing for more valuable insights.
This is one of the most comprehensive semiconductor breakdowns I've read.
You've done something rare here — you've taken a complex, layered industry and mapped it in a way that's both technically accurate and financially useful. The distinction between the profit pools is what makes this valuable. EDA is not equipment. Equipment is not foundry. Foundry is not memory. Memory is not packaging. They all sit in the same industry, but they do not have the same economics.
And that's where most analysis fails.
What strikes me is how this industry mirrors something larger — the question of who controls the chokepoints. The companies that capture the best economics aren't just the ones with the best technology. They're the ones that control scarcity. ASML controls EUV. TSMC controls advanced manufacturing at scale. NVIDIA controls the AI stack. Memory suppliers control HBM supply. Each is a gatekeeper.
At The Modern Lens, we explore the same question — but applied to structures beyond semiconductors. Who controls the chokepoints in information? In history? In the stories we're told? The mechanisms are different, but the pattern is the same: scarcity creates power.
I wrote about this in a piece called "A Shell on the Riverbed" — about how we tried to understand the universe, and why we missed the most important thing. About the things we search for, and the things we let slip away.
And in "The Digital Testament" — about leaving a trace, about proving that we were here, that we tried. About what we build that outlasts us.
This breakdown is a reminder that understanding the structure — whether in chips or in society — is the first step to seeing clearly. Thank you for this.
I wrote about the physical infrastructure stack behind the chips and the companies that could stand to benefit
Great. Thanks for sharing
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.